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Monday, December 31, 2012

2013 FANTASY BASEBALL POSITION PRIMER: FIRST BASE

The other day we began our 2013 Fantasy Baseball Position Primer's by taking a close look at the catchers.  Today we delve into the blockbuster power position of first base which has the deepest collection of talent in the game when it comes to hitting.  Let's get right to it.

A few days ago we spoke about how one of the most tried and true methods for fantasy baseball success according to yours truly is to forget picking catchers until the middle portions of your draft.  Well the exact opposite holds true for the first base position as you MUST do what you can to get your hands on one of the stud power guys in the first two or three rounds.  And we also strongly recommend double-dipping here in your quest to find your CI or UTIL guy.  The power that is supplied at first base is extreme and getting two of these guys sets you up for great success in the home run, runs, and RBI department.  Now for some specifics:

3 First Baseman Who Should Turn A Profit

1.  Freddie Freeman:  At only 24 years old, Freddie Freeman is about ready to burst when it comes to his fantasy baseball prospects.  After coming up and hitting a very impressive 21 home runs as a 22 year old rookie, Freeman continued his ascent by hitting 23 more home runs in 2012 while also driving in 94.  His bat is mature beyond his years and the former 2nd round pick has had the future star label attached to his since he debuted.  Another spike in power is on the way and if Freeman can cut down on his strikeouts, a 25-30 home runs season could be in the offing for a guy who won't be drafted as a starting 1B in standard 12-team formats.

2.  Kendrys Morales:  Already went over why we love Morales' outlook for the 2013 campaign now that he will be playing everyday as the Seattle Mariners' starting first baseman.  Morales could be right on the verge of 30 home runs this season with around 90 RBI and just like in the case of Freeman, for a fraction of the cost.

3.  Adam LaRoche:  LaRoche is the classic case of a guy who is perennially underrated despite putting up top notch power numbers.  Sure his batting average is never great but it is not terrible either.  What is impressive is the 32 home runs LaRoche hit in spacious Washington last season.  With rumors that he could sign with the Boston Red Sox and thus hit in Fenway, LaRoche's outlook looks very positive once again with no one paying attention.

3 First Baseman Who Should Fail To Turn A Profit

1.  Mark Texeira:  Age, injuries, and a sinking batting average are all conspiring to curtail the value of the former first round pick.  Texeira has been a a batting average liability for a few years now and now he is falling in love with the DL.  Sure hitting in Yankee Stadium is perfect for his lefthanded swing but his awful April's are no standing out more when you take into account some underperformance the rest of the year.  The name value is now outstripping his actual value.

2.  Paul Konerko:  We have always loved the guy but finally age was starting to show up for Konerko in 2012 as his runs total sunk to the 60's and his power dropped for the third year in a row.  Father Time can't escape anyone and Konerko is clearly heading in the wrong direction.

3.  Adam Dunn:  Dunn was a tremendous value last season since many got him as a late round lottery ticket after his pathetic 2012.  41 home runs later and a major value was had.  The script switches for 2013 however as Dunn will now get drafted higher than he should as a result of his comeback season and thus he will have a tough time turning a profit.  His average is beyond horrific which takes a god chunk of the luster off the power. 

GUYS I WILL BE DRAFTING

1.  Kendrys Morales:  Been over this too many times to count.

2.  Freddy Freeman:  See above.

3.  Adam LaRoche:  See above

4.  Paul Goldschmidt:  Will reach a bit for Goldschmidt due to the fact he fell two stolen bases for a very rare 20/20 season for a first baseman.  Goldschmidt has uncanny wheels for the position and what is even more attractive is the fact there is more power in that bat as he hit home runs at a much better clip in the minors.  He also answered questions about his strikeout rate last season, hitting for a good average.  A 25/20 season is in the cards.

5.  Eric Hosmer:  Yes he destroyed all of his owners' hopes last season but he is now in the post-hyper sleeper mode which means profit.

LEAVE THEM AT ANOTHER POSITION

1.  Buster Posey-Catcher

2.  Corey Hart-Outfield

3.  Carlos Santana-Catcher

4.  Nick Swisher-Outfield

5.  Allen Craig-Outfield

6.  Pablo Sandoval-Third Base

7.  Mark Trumbo-Third Base

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