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Thursday, June 30, 2011

FANTASY BASEBALL BALLS AND STRIKES: PITCHERS TO BUY AND SELL PART 2



Trending Up

Brandon Morrow:  Morrow is starting to make good on all the promise he had coming into the season.  He is coming off two strong outings in a row littered with strikeouts and so maybe he wont be a complete bust after all.

Gio Gonzalez:  We haven't heard much about Gonzalez since he plays on the West Coast but this kid is dealing and has been most of the season.  He is walking too many guys but he combines that with one of the lowest hit rates in the game. Also the strikeouts are among the highest in the league as well and so Gonzalez is making good on all the hype he had.

CC Sabbathia:  Sabbathia is coming off a 13-K annihilation of the Milwaukee Brewers as he ratchets up his performance heading close to the break.  The resurgence in K's is key since Sabbathia was lacking a bit in that department early on.  No such worries now. 

Trending Down

Zach Britton:  Britton is looking for oxygen as the innings are starting to pile up on his young arm.  Britton doesn't have the K stuff to keep putting out there as a starting pitcher option so its best to cut and run.

Clay Buchholz:  Buchholz is not coming off the DL anytime soon as his back still is bothering him and his numbers were not that great to begin with.  He got very lucky last season and is dealing with a rapid regression.

Shaun Marcum:  Marcum has not been good ever since he hurt his hip and the health questions dominate discussion when it comes to his name.  He was awesome until the injury but for now his future is cloudy until this clears up.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitching Buys and Sells

About a month ago I brought to you a list of starting pitchers who I felt made good buys and good sells in fantasy baseball.  Some names on that list as Buys were Jordan Zimmerman (he of the 0.85 ERA in June) along with Francisco Liriano (mostly good since coming off the DL).  Some sells were Trevor Cahill (yet more evidence of his downturn in a rough outing on Thursday), along with Josh Beckett who is coming off getting hit hard his last start.  As always these suggestions are made with a heavy emphasis on advanced stats and so without further delay, here are some new Buys and Sells for the next few weeks.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Buys

Tim Stauffer:  Stauffer has made himself into more than just a play at home as he has strung together a nice run of outings with a high K rate being front and center.  Stauffer was a bit lagging in that department until recently but its showing up in bunches.  You cant beat the ballpark as we all know but Stauffer has carried over his stuff onto the road which cements the arrival of this former top draft pick.

Scott Baker:  We have been teased by Baker many times before, only to be letdown by injury and gopheritis.  He has looked like an ace starter this season however by averaging almost a K/IP and he too has a great ballpark to minimize his home run tendencies   Go heavy here in trying to get a hold of this quiet ace.

Jon Niese:  Few have spoken about how good Niese has been lately and like the two guys mentioned above, his K rate has risen to go along with support from a huge ballpark.  Niese has nice pedigree like with Baker and Stauffer and with the Mets winning games, is a solid bet all around.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitching Sells

Chris Carpenter:  In a word, what Tony LaRussa did to Carpenter in allowing him to throw for over 130 pitches Wednesday was criminal.  Surely the aging Carpenter will feel the effects of that soon and we all know how injury prone he is as well.  Get out now before the floor falls out.

Jhoulys Chacin:  Chacin is a kid pitcher with a lot of talent but he was putting up too good to be true stats through the first two-plus months of the season.  Chacin has gotten hit around his last two outings as the BABIP correction is in full swing.  He will never have more value than he does now so move him if you can.

Alexei Ogando:  Another BABIP beneficiary who is now paying the price, Ogando is dealing with the correction like Chacin is.  The weather is warming up and so his fly ball tendencies will turn his outings into a mess before you know it.  It will get ugly soon.

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